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11 February 2026 Preprint Crypto Microstructure

The Extremity Premium: Sentiment Regimes and Adverse Selection in Cryptocurrency Markets

Murad Farzulla

Version note · 19 September 2026

An empirical revision was prepared in September 2026. This download remains the older public manuscript; it must not be used as evidence for the withdrawn ABM mechanism or decomposition. The replacement submitted to arXiv is a separate version.

Download PDF arXiv: 2602.07018 DOI Zenodo

Summary

Historical preprint examining cryptocurrency sentiment extremity and estimated bid–ask spreads. The empirical relationship depends on specification. The original agent-based model does not independently establish the mechanism built into its rules, and the associated mechanism and decomposition claims have been withdrawn.

Suggested citation

Murad Farzulla (2026). The Extremity Premium: Sentiment Regimes and Adverse Selection in Cryptocurrency Markets. Dissensus Working Paper DAI-2510. DOI: 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8802783/v1

Methodology

Sentiment regime analysis Estimated spread proxies Specification and sensitivity analysis

Topics

Financial Markets Cryptocurrency Agent-Based Modeling